Starbucks · Forecast
Shipment occurrence and timing
Models that beat standard operations-research methods on whether a shipment happens, and when.
The Starbucks team beat standard operations-research forecasts of whether a shipment occurs and when it lands. The series below is synthetic, so you can see the gap the post described.
Timing error, OR
6.63 days
Timing error, new model
0.98 days
Occurrence accuracy
75% vs 88% OR